CMC Research Institutes has joined with national teams of experts from around the world to imagine then model a future where countries have achieved deep decarbonization while remaining prosperous. Led by the Sustainable Development Solutions Network, a global initiative for the United Nations, and supported by the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI) in France, the International Energy Agency, and the World Business Counsel for Sustainable Development, 16 countries and over 34 organizations worldwide are working to develop such scenarios from the bottom up, nation by nation. CMC convened the team responsible for the Canadian section and is managing the process through its Low Carbon Pathways Group.

Phase 2 Report Released

On September 17, 2015, CMC released the Phase 2 study as part of the second stage of the international Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP). The Canadian report was released in conjunction with the release of the 16-country report in Paris by the United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network (UNSDSN) and the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI). The international study will be tabled by the French presidency at the United Nations’ 21^st Conference of the Parties in December 2015 (COP21).

Canada’s Phase 2 report, Deep Decarbonization Pathways for Canada, provides new modeling and analysis, including:

• The context for the Canadian deep decarbonization report, looking at global trends gleaned from our work with the 15 other global DDPP teams.
• An overview of Canada’s GHG trajectory, looking particularly at how the new low oil price environment is driving GHGs in different segments of Canada’s economy.
• Elements of Canada’s deep decarbonization pathways, including the policy package, the GHG outcomes, the main decarbonization pathways, investment needs and the impact of oil prices and decarbonization on Canada’s economy.
• Six decarbonization pathways deconstructed, exploring key technology trends and opportunities towards deep GHG reductions by mid-century.
• An exploration of Canada’s recently announced 2030 Intended Nationally Determined Contribution within the context of a 2°C emission reduction trajectory.

A summary of Canada’s deep decarbonization preparedness, identifying risk and opportunities to compete in a carbon constrained global economy.

Input and feedback on the report should be directed to:

Richard Adamson richard.adamson@cmcghg.com
Chris Bataille cbataill@gmail.com
Dave Sawyer enviroeconomics@gmail.com

The main report can be found here.

Three infographics are provided here, here and here.

Objectives

The ultimate objective of the Deep Decarbonization Pathway Project (DDPP) is to help countries to adopt and implement long-term policies to achieve deep decarbonization by mid-century. An intermediate objective is to support a positive outcome of the UNFCCC international climate negotiations at the December 2015 COP-21 meetings in Paris by helping national decision makers and the international community understand what deep decarbonization implies for individual countries and regions. Most fundamentally, the project seeks to promote processes of “problem solving” on how to achieve deep decarbonization in as many countries as possible.

To accomplish these goals, the DDPP team proposes a coordinated international modeling effort in which research teams from 15 countries analyze what their nations must do to achieve an emissions trajectory consistent with the 2°C target.

These decarbonization pathways will:

• Provide information that decision makers want and are useful for COP-21
• Model the infrastructure and technology path and cost for each country to achieve its target
• Make mitigation options and costs transparent across countries
• Identify priority areas for technology R&D and commercialization
• Build a foundation for on-going joint analysis of national mitigation pathways

CMC seeks funding for DDPP

CMC Research Institutes is actively seeking funding from industry and government sources to support this important ongoing project. If you are interested in receiving a more detailed briefing or discussing this further, contact:
Richard Adamson at Richard.Adamson@cmcghg.com

Further reading

DDPP Project Description

DDPP Fact Sheet

CMC’s Low Carbon Pathways Group (LCPG) was established to offer transparent, independent insight into global decarbonization pathways and to lead in Canadian climate policy - providing unique and world-class insight to industry and government.

In the course of fulfilling this mandate, the LCPG will draw on the sizeable academic networks built by CMC Research Institutes through its research program. Between 2010 and 2012 the company distributed $22 million to 44 research projects across Canada, 14 of which focused on the economic, societal, political, regulatory and business environments that either exist or must be developed to facilitate the change to a low carbon world.

Project details are below.

—————————————————-

Assessing the potential of low carbon fossil-fuel/derived technologies:
A life cycle environmental and techno-economic evaluation of the oil sands

Principal Investigators: Heather MacLean, University of Toronto; Joule Bergerson, University of Calgary; David Keith, University of Calgary

Funding: $337,000/3 years

Summary: The rapid development of Alberta’s bitumen resources offers significant economic benefits while posing complex social and environmental challenges. The objective of the research is to improve scientific understanding of the life cycle implications of various greenhouse gas mitigation strategies that could be applied in the development of a major resource critical to Canada’s future: Alberta’s oil sands. A state-of-the-art model will be developed and applied to inform R&D, operating strategies and policy making through identifying tradeoffs and implications of different carbon management scenarios based on an evaluation of their environmental and economic implications, technical feasibility and regulatory aspects.

—————————————————-

Assessing the potential of low carbon fossil fuel / derived technologies: developing modeling and analytical tools for assessing the potential contribution of carbon management to Canadian GHG emission reduction

Principal Investigators: Mark Jaccard, Simon Fraser University; John Nyboer, Simon Fraser University; James Meadowcroft, Carleton University

Funding: $375,000/3 years

Summary: There is a growing body of research estimating some aspect of CCS potential with respect to specific industrial applications that produce or could store carbon emissions. Most of this research, however, is project specific, rich in technological, geological, industrial and perhaps economic information, but lacking integration into a broader systems analysis that assesses the prospects of such a project when other factors of social choice are considered. The objective of this proposed research is to develop and apply analytical tools that integrate information from several disciplines to assess the technical, economic, and social institutional policy potential for CCS deployment in Canada. These tools would enable governments, industry, environmentalists, and researchers to assess the potential contribution of CCS relative to other GHG emissions reduction options throughout Canada and within specific regions.

—————————————————-

Governance innovation and the transition to a low carbon economy

Principal Investigators: James Meadowcroft, Carleton University; Doug Macdonald, University of Toronto; Glen Toner, Carleton University

Funding: $250,000/3 years

Summary: This project is concerned with innovation in governance practices to address climate change and accelerate the transition towards a low carbon Canada. It takes two basic approaches to explore institutional reforms that could strengthen climate governance in Canada. First, it addresses the particular issue of distributional conflicts potentially associated with climate-change policies (such as inequitable effects imposed upon the poor by a carbon tax). Second, the project examines the systems for climate governance established by six jurisdictions with particularly active climate policy (UK, Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, Sweden and the EU). Research will reveal how these systems operate in each jurisdiction and, more importantly, will identify specific institutional innovations that hold wider promise. The two approaches will provide lessons about innovative governance practices to encourage the transition to a low carbon Canada. Conclusions will be shared with political decision makers, other interested stakeholders and the academic community.

—————————————————-

National and international legal and regulatory framework for carbon management

Principal Investigators: Nigel Bankes, University of Calgary; Meinhard Doelle, Dalhousie University; Shi-Ling Hsu, University of British Columbia; Shaun Fluker, University of Calgary

Funding: $360,000/3 years

Summary: The main objective of this project is to contribute to the development of an international and domestic legal and regulatory framework that is able to respond to and accommodate the creation of new carbon efficient recovery and processing technologies. The project has three research objectives: (i) to examine at the national level the property, regulatory and liability issues associated with new carbon efficient technologies; (ii) to examine how new technologies and carbon management measures can be integrated with and credited within cap and trade and offset regimes at both the national and international levels; and (iii) to examine the relationship between carbon management measures and international trade and investment law.

→ Read More

—————————————————-

Carbon policy uncertainty, investment decisions, and commercial feasibility of carbon capture and storage technology

Principal Investigators: Janne Kettunen, University of Calgary; Jared Carbone, University of Calgary; Mark Jaccard, Simon Fraser University

Funding: $100,000/2 years

Summary: Different policies and technological advances will favor different strategies to reduce CO₂ emissions, and yet power generating companies must make investment decisions and commit to particular generating technologies while Canadian carbon policies are still uncertain. Investigators will analyze the economics of carbon management. Their models, which will take into account both the reductions in CO₂ emissions and the financial impacts of various energy generation and carbon-reduction strategies, will help clarify which strategies and policies will be most cost-effective.

—————————————————-

Towards effective engagement: Assessing stakeholder attitudes and public controversy surrounding greenhouse gas mitigation energy systems

Principal Investigators: Edna Einsiedel, University of Calgary; Stephan Hill, Trent University; Karena Shaw, University of Victoria; Matt Horne, Pembina Institute

Funding: $350,000/3 years

Summary: Stakeholder and public attitudes towards greenhouse gas-mitigating technologies are the focus of this investigation. The team hopes to engage the public in discussion to find out how and why people make the judgments they do about given technologies, including hydroelectric power and wind power in Ontario, and carbon capture and storage in Alberta. The multi-institution collaboration will enable the researchers to compare views on energy technologies in four Canadian provinces.

—————————————————-

Understanding barriers to low-carbon technology investments in the oil and gas industry: A managerial cognition perspective

Principal Investigators: Natalie Slawinski, Memorial University; Pratima Bansal, University of Western Ontario; Frances Bowen, University of Calgary and Queen Mary, University of London
Funding: $151,500/2 years
Summary: This team of researchers working to understand how the perceptions of managers in the oil and gas industry impact decisions to invest in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and other low carbon technologies. There are certain ‘understood’ objective barriers to CCS deployment including factors such as public acceptance, liability regimes, a contested policy environment, misleading/limited information on CCS, and the lack of a price incentive. This research will examine less understood subjective barriers behind management decisions to adopt new low carbon technologies.

→ Read More

—————————————————-

Risk assessment and management of carbon capture and storage in a Canadian context

Principal Investigators: Daniel Krewski, University of Ottawa; Mamadou Fall, University of Ottawa; Jatin Nathwani, University of Waterloo; Robert Gracie, University of Waterloo; James Craig, University of Waterloo; Maurice Dusseault, University of Waterloo; Joseph Arvai, University of Calgary

Funding: $930,000/3 years

Summary: In a multi-disciplinary collaboration, researchers will develop a tailored-for-Canada framework for risk assessment and management of CCS. The project will involve eight research groups who will contribute expertise in engineering, social sciences, economics, policy analyses and communications. The first goal will be to understand the technical and scientific aspects of putting CO₂ deep in the Earth’s crust. In the second phase of the project, the researchers will apply management strategies and models developed for other technologies, as well as more recent findings, to the specific case of CCS.

—————————————————-

A comparative life cycle assessment of three technologies: Post-combustion and pre-combustion capture and oxyfuel, combined with CO₂-EOR and storage

Principal Investigators: Paitoon Tontiwachwuthikul, University of Regina; Christine Chan, University of Regina; Malcolm Wilson, Petroleum Technology Research Centre ; Anastassia Manuilova, Saskatchewan Research Council; Darryl Dormuth, National Research Council

Funding: $200,250/2 years

Summary: The environmental effects of three technologies to reduce CO₂ emissions from fossil-fuel based power plants is the focus of this study. Post-combustion capture, pre-combustion capture, and using oxyfuel technology all require some energy for operation, although the overall goal is to reduce CO₂ emissions. In order to provide industry and decision makers with a solid comparison of the environmental performance of these carbon reduction methods, the researchers will use a life-cycle approach to consider all environmental impacts of the technologies, from construction through operation, including energy and raw material consumption, emissions and wastes.

—————————————————-

Achieving a low-carbon, globally competitive energy economy: Removing barriers and cultivating enablers to innovation in Canada’s oil sands and heavy oil industry

Principal Investigators: Harrie Vredenburg, University of Calgary; Luis Escobar, University of Lethbridge; Adam Fremeth, University of Western Ontario; Louis Rinfret, University of Quebec (Trios-Riveires); Nancy Higginson, University of Calgary

Funding: $442,800/3 years

Summary: This multi-institution collaboration will study innovation issues in Canada’s oil sands and heavy oil industry. The researchers will take lessons on industry failures and successes from a wide range of companies in the oil sands and heavy oil sector and beyond to identify both barriers and enablers to innovation in these arenas.

—————————————————-

Managing the leak? A study of media, risk and crisis communication associated with the report of leakage at the Weyburn CCS facility.

Project investigators: James Meadowcroft, Carleton University; Edna Einsiedel, University of Calgary

Funding: $30,000/1 year

Summary: In January 2011, media seized on claims that CO₂ was leaking from the Weyburn CO₂ storage site. Although industry and government moved to reassure the public about the safety of the site and CCS, the story draws attention to the role that adverse incidents can have on public perceptions of novel technologies. James Meadowcroft, Carleton University, and Edna Einsiedel, University of Calgary, are leading an international team of researchers who will examine media content, public communication by principal stakeholders and interviews with important actors involved in the Weyburn incident.

—————————————————-

Low carbon fuel demonstration pilot plant for the cement industry

Principal Investigators: Warren Mabee, Queen’s University; Andrew Pollard, Queen’s University; Steven Price, WWF Canada; Eric Shilts, Cement Association of Canada; Robert Cumming, Lafarge Cement

Funding: $400,000/3 years

Partner/Contributors: Cement Association of Canada, World Wildlife Federation Canada, Lafarge Cement

Summary: In this collaborative effort involving academic researchers, the Cement Association of Canada and the World Wildlife Federation Canada, six different low carbon biofuels will be co-fired with fossil fuels. Manufacturing cement requires large inputs of energy in order to heat the cement kiln to temperatures of up to 1450 ° C. Normal practice is to combust fossil fuels such as coal and petroleum cokes. Replacing some of those fuels with low carbon fuels such as construction & demolition wood and railway ties, will result in a net reduction in GHG emissions because biofuels are carbon neutral (CO₂ is removed from the atmosphere in the biomass and then released during combustion). Further, the re-use of fossil-derived fractions within the mixed low carbon fuels will increase fossil resource usage efficiency. One key aspect of the project is to increase the feed rate of low-carbon alternative fuels. The change in gas emissions from the plant, expected to be beneficial, will be monitored and well as the effect of the various fuels on the physical and chemical properties of the cement produced, through life cycle assessment.

→ Read More

—————————————————-

Designing carbon pricing policy to drive innovation in low carbon technologies and practices

Principal Investigators: Randal Wigle, Wilfrid Laurier University; Nicholas Rivers, University of Ottawa; Stewart Elgie, University of Ottawa; Jared Carbone, University of Calgary; Yazid Dissou, University of Ottawa; Madanmohan Ghosh, Environment Canada

Funding: $400,000/2 year

Summary: A barrier to the adoption of a carbon price is the perceived economic cost.

This venture work will develop a model that advances the capacity to design carbon pricing policies that maximize innovation incentives while minimizing economic and social costs. There are two key questions this research will explore: 1) what drives innovation in technology and in practices required to achieve GHG reductions; and 2) how can associated economic and social costs be minimized. This work will result in the development of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that could help address economic concerns regarding carbon pricing.

→ Read More

—————————————————-

A comparative life cycle assessment of three technologies: Post-combustion and pre-combustion capture and oxyfuel, combined with CO₂-EOR and storage

Principal Investigators: Paitoon Tontiwachwuthikul, University of Regina; Christine Chan, University of Regina; Malcolm Wilson, Petroleum Technology Research Centre ; Anastassia Manuilova, Saskatchewan Research Council; Darryl Dormuth, National Research Council
Funding: $200,250/2 years

Summary: The environmental effects of three technologies to reduce CO₂ emissions from fossil-fuel based power plants is the focus of this study. Post-combustion capture, pre-combustion capture, and using oxyfuel technology all require some energy for operation, although the overall goal is to reduce CO₂ emissions. In order to provide industry and decision makers with a solid comparison of the environmental performance of these carbon reduction methods, the researchers will use a life-cycle approach to consider all environmental impacts of the technologies, from construction through operation, including energy and raw material consumption, emissions and wastes.